U.S. Senate Passes Bill and Defeats the Constitution

Stick a fork in it … we’re done. Today’s passage of the Senate’s version of the mother of all bailouts bill all but seals the fate of the great experiment known as America. The first nail is in the coffin, the second is soon to follow.

Here’s how it works, for those too short on brains to figure it out.

Plan A: Pass the bailout. Financial institutions get to offload their illiquid assets onto Uncle Sam (read:taxpayers) and start all over with a clean slate. This allows them to continue the bad loan practices and jack-of-all-interest rate deals they have done for decades now. In response, the Fed will continue to print money out of thin air and loan it to the banks at rates that simply boggle the mind. Did you know the Fed loaned out more money in the two days before this vote than they had assets on the books? Good luck figuring that one out!

So what’s the bottom line with Plan A? As the monetary supply reaches epic proportions, hyperinflation will take place, causing foreign banks and governments to do two things: (a) stop loaning us money to keep us afloat, and (b) cashing in their dollars, which will cause the value of the dollar to freefall into the abyss. Instead of a recession or depression, what we will get is nothing short of the collapse of the American dollar and everything that runs on the dollar (read:government, both state and local).

Plan B: Forget the bailout. Hang tight and let the market correction take place. I’m sorry to inform you, but that 2,500 square foot house is simply NOT worth $1.5 million. Deal with it. Yes, times will be tough and there will most likely be a depression. This is when we should fire the Federal Reserve and take back the gold standard to back up our money so it has some real, intrinsic value. After prices stabilize and the amount of dollars in circulation is reduced back to the level we can back with the value of gold, then we can move on and begin to rebuild our economy on something of substance instead of thin air.

OK, I’ll leave you with this video from Ron Paul explaining his concerns. Maybe I didn’t explain it well enough and you can understand his version.

So long, and thanks for all the fish.

Technorati Tags: austrian economics, bailout plan, collapse of the dollar, ron paul, senate bail out, senate bail out plan

Tags: austrian economics, bailout plan, collapse of the dollar, ron paul, senate bail out, senate bail out plan

Today is the anniversary of the deadliest natural disaster in American history. On this date, September 8, 1900, a category 4 hurricane hit Galveston Island off the coast of Texas, killing over 6,000 people. This film from the History Channel’s Great Disasters series examines the folklore and fact about this storm, focusing on Isaac Cline, the weather bureau forecaster in charge of calling the shots on Galveston Island. This shows how devastating mother nature can be and provides a point of reflection on how many lives our modern methods have saved.

OK, so I’ve gathered some data from weather stations along the gulf coast to try and determine where Hurricane Gustav will hit, at least from my predictions. Now the only caveat to this methodology is that the local weather forecaster who relies only on his own instrumentation and observations might not come up with the same conclusion as I will, simply for the fact that my projection is based on data from multiple points that are hundreds of miles apart. So, in light of that, there is something to be said for communication with other weather observers as well as some modern methods of weather forecasting. Before modern forecast methods, hurricanes and other natural weather phenomenon sometimes cause devastation the likes of which we haven’t seen in 50 years or more, thanks to modern prediction methods and communications of warnings to the populace.

So at what points did I chase down observation information and what were my resulting predictions? Well, let’s start from the farthest point east that I considered and work our way back west. First, let’s take a look at Gulfport, Mississippi. Here are the charts that I pulled from Wunderground.com for this location:

At this point you can see that around 10:00 a.m. the barometric pressure really started to drop. Gulfport started the day off around 1013 millibars and is down to around 1008. Interestingly enough the temperature is dropping, but so is the wind speed over the past few hours. So what does this tell us? If I were predicting the weather locally in Gulfport using these and physical observations, I would probably predict a good storm rolling in, but would be hesitant to consider a direct hit from a hurricane to be forthcoming.

Next up, let’s take a look at New Orleans, Louisiana. Here’s the charts for NOLA:

Now here we see the barometric pressure has been dropping as well. Interestingly enough, NOLA started out around 1010 millibars this morning and is down to almost 1006. That is very significant, as I will point out at the end of this post. Also, you will note that the temp has just started to drop a bit as the dewpoint is rising, noting a possible future convergence of these two factors. As for wind, it’s been picking up all morning there with gusts close to 30 m.p.h. If I were a local forecaster in New Orleans I would definitely be predicting stormy weather over the next 24 hours. Would I predict a hurricane? Hard to tell with just this data. Again, knowing when the hurricane season is most active and knowing that this storm is moving inland from the gulf, it wouldn’t hurt to consider that as a possibility.

Next up is Lake Charles, Louisiana. This is another spot close to the shoreline that is also within the “cone of error” as the officials from the hurricane center like to call the margin of error.

Here we see a different picture than what we have seen previously. The afternoon temperature continues to rise, as it should on a normal day. While the barometric pressure is falling, indicating a storm is coming, it is only now at 1009 millibars, a bit different than it’s neighbors to the east. While the wind speed has picked up during the day, it hasn’t spiked like we saw on the chart for New Orleans. A local forecaster basing his offering on this information for Lake Charles might indicate stormy weather for the next 24-36 hours, but nothing indicative from this of a hurricane level blast.

Our fourth and final point is in Texas. For this one I went a bit towards the edge of the “cone of error” and decided to see how Galveston was fairing during all of this hubub. Here are the charts for Galveston, Texas:

Here again, as in Lake Charles, we see some similar differences from the NOLA and Gulfport data. While the temperature here is fluctuating, the barometric pressure has yet to reach 1009 millibars, starting the day off around 1014. Wind speeds are calm and gusts are not looking bad either. If I were predicting local weather for Galveston, Texas based on this data I would say rain within the next 36 hours, with thunderstorms possible. Highly unlikely that this would be the site of a hurricane given these parameters, unless something significantly changed overnight.

So what’s my conclusion? Again, I have the advantage of technology and the ability to check the data from multiple sites located several hundred miles apart. However, judging from this data, I would have to say that as the storm travels towards the path of least resistance, I would look for landfall to be very close to New Orleans, perhaps just slightly east of it. East would be better for the city, since the storm surge on Atlantic basin storms is worse to the east of the eye because of the rotation of the storm. A direct hit or one that is slightly west of the city would be devastating to the city still under recovery from Hurricane Katrina. Let’s all pray they get a break on this one.

I’ll be back in 24 to see how my predictions hold up. Just for the record, the current prediction from the National Hurricane Center calls for the path to go just to the west of NOLA.

Well, I’ve been gone for a few weeks from this blogging project. Suffice it to say after my last post we saw about two weeks of rain. It didn’t rain the entire time, but it rained pretty much every day for about two weeks. To be honest, it’s the wettest August weather that I can remember having.

Anyway, now we have Hurrican Gustav churning towards New Orleans out in the Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical Storm Hanna just east of the Bahamas just chompin’ at the bit to get a piece of the action.

So how does a local weather forecaster such as myself get a grip on something like a hurricane or tropical storm? After all, these are huge storms that are not seen every day. Can a local weather predictor actually have any hope of predicting these storms in advance?

We’re going to find out! By the time Gustav reaches my area in northeast Texas it will most likely be a tropical depression force storm at best. Predicting what will happen here based on local observations only would provide a pretty accurate picture I am sure: a few days of thunderstorms, rain, etc. Knowing ahead of time that a storm the size of a hurricane is coming your way most likely would require more than just local weather readings and observations. However, on my next post I will be examining local data for several personal weather stations located across the shores of Alabama, Louisiana and Texas - then I will make my prediction based on this data where the storm will hit. About the only way for a weather forecaster with limited info on the ground to predict that it is a hurricane would be knowledge of annual climate cycles for his/her location. In other words, after a few years in the same area you should be able to recognize certain weather patterns such as tornado producing storms and hurricanes based on the time of the year and immediate preceding weather patterns.

OK, next up … a look at some weather data from the Gulf Coast and a prediction about the path of Hurricane Gustav.

Well, I’m trying my hand at affiliate marketing again and trying a new angle this time. I must admit that the allure of working hard for a short season and then working maintenance on a network of virtual real estate is a vision of mine. This week I’m promoting a brand-spanking new product from Alex Goad called Affiliate Payload.

I guess I caught the bug of the independent entrepreneur all those years ago when we dabbled in Amway. 1996 … ah, it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Obviously we didn’t strike it rich in that business, but it planted a seed inside of me that refuses to die.

Working from home is part of the realization of that dream. Freelancing provides me some control over my time, although at a considerable cost in cash equity at times. However, it is a trade-off that we have been more than willing to make thus far.

Going forward, I’m working on developing several products of my own to sell through an online marketplace such as ClickBank. One product will be about how to work from home freelancing (since I have some experience there ;-)). The other products I’m working on are still top secret, but I’ll let you in on the deal as soon as possible!

Anyway, if you’ve ever been interested in affiliate marketing, the ins and outs, how it’s done and how to grow beyond simple information products like ClickBank and into cost-per-action (or CPA) network sales, then you should really check out Goad’s product, the Affiliate Payload.

Click on that link and you will get a full review by yours truly, plus the chance for one heck of a bonus!

OK, it’s time to get busy forecasting the weather. Here’s what I’m doing step-by-step, so you can follow along.

The first thing I’m doing is checking the barometric pressure. While the barometer may rise and fall each day, the general trend is what we are looking for here. The barometer has been falling pretty steadily since we had the heat wave last week, peaking on the 6th and falling since. This is a general indication of storms — usually associated with low pressure.

OK, now for physical observations. Well, it has rained the last few mornings in a row, so that is a trend I can’t ignore. It does make it difficult to observe the dew patterns however, so I will have to stick to a couple of other signs.

I observed a good spackling of altocumulus clouds late this afternoon. The pattern (as seen above) is what is known as a mackerel scales. Usually this portends of stormy weather within the next 36 hours. There were a couple of other observations, but I will share them later in a lesson format.

So my prediction for my local (East Texas) area is as follows:

Temperatures stable with highs in the mid 90s over the next few days, with a good chance of rain, increasing over the next couple of days as the barometer continues to fall.

Be sure and check back in a couple of days and see how I did!

1918: Philadelphia, PA, established an all-time record with a high of 106 degrees. New York City experienced its warmest day and night with a low of 82 degrees and a high of 102 degrees. Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Flemington NJ and Somerville NJ established state records for the month of August.

1984: El Paso, TX, normally receives 1.21 inches of rain in August. They got it in forty-five minutes, with four more inches to boot, during a storm which left Downtown El Paso under five feet of water.

1986: A rare outbreak of seven tornadoes occurred in New England. One tornado carved its way through Cranston RI and Providence RI causing twenty injuries.

1989: Forty cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Valentine, NE, with a reading of 40 degrees, and Belcourt ND with a low of 37 degrees. Martin SD was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 30 degrees.

1890: Thunderstorms left four inches of hail covering the ground in Adair and Union Counties in Iowa. The hail drifted into six foot mounds in spots and remained on the ground for 26 days in some locations.

1959: A bucket survey showed that thunderstorms dropped 16.70 inches of rain on parts of Decatur County, Iowa. The total was accepted as Iowa’s 24 hour rainfall record.

1986: Evening thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 miles per hour at Winner, South Dakota. This caused damage to 200 homes.

Mankind has been predicting the weather for thousands of years. Only recently have the inventions of modern science expanded the scope of weather forecasting into its own scientific branch (meteorology) and allowed us to see weather on a global scale and make farther reaching predictions than ever before. However, as anyone who watches the nightly news weather forecast will tell you, the weatherman isn’t always right - even with all the technology at his fingertips.

One of the things I want to do here on the blog is make this a part of my own weather observation and forecasting adventures. These posts will be my own personal experience with local observations and conditions, as well as forecasts and evaluations of those forecasts for my local area. Secondly, this will serve as an educational tool and interactive venue for those of you who are also interested in the study of local weather conditions and forecasting.

If anyone has a blog where you are doing something similar, please feel free to contact me about linking up.

Air conditioning in the southern United States is almost a requirement, depending on where you live. We just had a window unit in our living room go out a few days ago, and yesterday I got the replacement unit put it.

This has really made me think about what life must have been like in these parts of the country 100 years ago. How in the world did people survive in 100F+ heat without air conditioning? I’ve got a few thoughts on this, and will put together another post later on how to do it … although I don’t think anyone will give the false impression that it would be nearly as comfortable as having a/c available.

I grew up in central Texas without an air conditioner, so I’ve got a few ideas. I’m also doing some research on what people did ‘back in the day’. So, for all you frugally minded folks in the south, stay tuned for what to do to reduce your electric bill this summer and keep the a/c down to a minimum.